“The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised. ”

George Will

Yes, you are never wrong when you do this.  Covid/China/Wuhan/whatever virus deaths were off by millions.  You can’t really trust a weather forecast until the time you need it to be right.  You can’t lose.  Predict the worst with a probability and then you can’t really be wrong, just a little off.

I’m an optimist, but I want things to be correct, based on facts and history whenever possible.  Forecasts can be based on these 2 things to get an accurate measurement, when you want it to be.  I guess that’s the big gotcha for these 2.