“The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised. ”
George Will
Yes, you are never wrong when you do this. Covid/China/Wuhan/whatever virus deaths were off by millions. You can’t really trust a weather forecast until the time you need it to be right. You can’t lose. Predict the worst with a probability and then you can’t really be wrong, just a little off.
I’m an optimist, but I want things to be correct, based on facts and history whenever possible. Forecasts can be based on these 2 things to get an accurate measurement, when you want it to be. I guess that’s the big gotcha for these 2.
Delusions of Adequacy 