Winter hit here up in the mountains. I’m lucky that I have 4 wheel drive on both my truck and my dog.
No one is going anywhere. It’s an introverts dream
In case you don’t get the title, it is a Jimmy Buffet song.
“In all recorded history there has not been one economist who has had to worry about where the next meal would come from.”
I suppose that being an economist is like being a weather forecaster. You are more likely to be wrong about your guess, but people still tune in the next day in case you might be right.
“The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised. ”
George Will
Yes, you are never wrong when you do this. Covid/China/Wuhan/whatever virus deaths were off by millions. You can’t really trust a weather forecast until the time you need it to be right. You can’t lose. Predict the worst with a probability and then you can’t really be wrong, just a little off.
I’m an optimist, but I want things to be correct, based on facts and history whenever possible. Forecasts can be based on these 2 things to get an accurate measurement, when you want it to be. I guess that’s the big gotcha for these 2.
If you look dead east to the hurricane, you’d find where I lived 20 some odd years ago. It hit like an atomic bomb that make south Florida look like Hiroshima.
It sounded like a freight train all night long. We had a new born and were mighty scared for hours. Fortunately, it moved fast and was over by the next day.
I had to crawl out of a window with a chain saw to cut a tree off of my front door so that we could get out of the house. We were lucky as it was a relatively compact storm and hit only about 40-50 miles south of where our house was. That was the difference between our house standing vs. being a pile of bricks.
Delusions of Adequacy 