Was IBM’s Watson a Breakthrough or Very Cheap and Creative Advertising?

January 8, 2012

John Simonds ibm, ibm research, obvious, technology , , , Leave a comment

As we all know, Watson appeared and won on Jeopardy last year.  It was the culmination of years of work and manpower to build a machine that could react faster and be programmed to win a game show.  It was brilliant, but more for promotion than technology (as evidenced so far).  There is little doubt that the promotional value was priceless to the IT industry and an easy calculation by IBM to one up the competition.

The two humans were limited to their capacity, whereas Watson was a massive computer with incredible storage and processing capability.  It was programmed specifically for the game, so while not a slam dunk, inevitability wasn’t in much doubt.

I don’t know about you, but as I get older, I forget things and computers don’t.  You can add memory, processors and build it big enough to recall more than any amount of humans.  Jeopardy had two champions,  so it wasn’t really a fair fight.  You ultimately can overpower any certain situation with billions in technology (which is what it cost to win), but throw something like emotion or nuance into a situation and computers are lost.

It was the perfect set up.  Everyone loves to root for the underdog even though the humans really fit that role.  It was accomplished by putting the biggest two winners ever on Jeopardy up against poor Watson.  The truth was that it never was going to be close given the confines of the rules of the game.  In real life, with unforeseen issues, the humans would have a fair chance.  That was never the point of Watson though.

IBM got to promote a research facility, executives, technology and almost a free ticket for three days.  Jeopardy also was a winner with dominant ratings.

I don’t want to debate the possibilities of Watson’s future contribution to technology other than stating that it is another step (and possibly direction)  in data analytics, and it increases the perception of IBM’s lead in this area (thanks to a lot of M&A and some folks that worked without getting enough credit).  It hasn’t been the breakthrough that companies have jumped on like an iPhone, yet billions of dollars have been spent on the same hardware used to build Watson since Jeopardy for traditional IT.  Time will tell.

ADVERTISING

For now, the real victory was exposure.  How much would it cost to purchase 1.5 hours of prime time advertising for a 3 day period where you basically get to change the rules of advertising to where you don’t even have to pretend that an ad agency was involved (also saving millions).  Here is the breakdown of advertising to program, but in reality the big IBM Watson Avatar is a commercial by itself every time Alex said the word Watson.

From a Mad Men point of view (advertising show for those who don’t know) this was a stroke of creative genius that began with winning a chess match against Gary Kasparov, then moving to prime time TV when new exposure was needed.  I saw people glued to their seats and talking about it the next day at a conference.  Nevertheless, it still has all the appearances of a publicity stunt. Unfortunately, it saddled IBM with a 2015earnings projection claim that Palmisano left Gini Rometty to figure out.  With this economy, it has Sham’s chance of beating Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes to make it.

There will be claims that further technology is Watson legacy and success, but it is not what was intended by the efforts which related to making sure it beat the humans on Jeopardy.  That is supposed to come later.

CURING THE COMMON COLD

It has been suggested that Watson technolgy is being used to cure cancer.  I like others wish for this as I lost my mother to that disease.  Along with AIDS and the common cold, I have my doubts that we’ll really see this in our lifetime.  By then, trillions will be spent.  Like Global Warming, we could do more by helping to feed the starving and providing help and aid to millions.  This is not what Watson is about though last spring, it was the advertising win of 2010.

So the jury is out on whether it will succeed in medical or some other breakthrough.  For now, it was the promotional prime time win last year.

RIM – RIP

December 25, 2011

John Simonds Analyst, apple, iphone, Lotusphere2009, predictions, Work , , , Leave a comment

Rarely do I write about the technology that I replaced because I’m usually so excited about the replacement.  In this case I’ll make an exception.  I already wrote about my new phone, but as much as I wanted the new phone, getting rid of my blackberry was more important.  Rob Enderle reminded me of this in his tech trends blog.

At a Lotusphere show not too long ago, we did an announcement with RIM and Notes (it was an announcement of a product we were going to release at a later date).  Not only was I underwhelmed by the product, the hardware and software technology from RIM was as cool as mud huts compared to new construction.  On top of this, when I offered to help the RIM executives for gratis, they had an attitude that belied the fact that they already had iPhone daggers fatally in their hearts and didn’t even know it. It now looks like it’s going to cost them their jobs.   I was treated as if I was dust (I’m being nice to them) by their executives.  Notes was almost impossible to use on a blackberry at first.  It made it to a D- at best.

I knew then that not only was RIM in trouble as a company, I disliked the blackberry as a piece of technology almost more than any I’ve had in 30 years.  I saw the crackberry addiction it caused in some folks which I didn’t like.  I also saw that if you had a blackberry (before iPhone days), you just signed up for a 24/7 availability.

The first one I got for free, and promptly got rid of in a month as it was more trouble than it was worth.  The last one I’ll ever have is because my then company had me get one when I wanted a real phone/data device instead.

My problem is solved.  Too bad about RIM…their once leadership position is now only a memory with recent market share decline.

It looks like I’m not the only one who believes they are in trouble.  Their Board is not helping out either.

Sales figures show the same decline.  It was not even nice knowing you.

So throw the Blackberry on the technology rubbish pile along with the Palm, OS/2, Token Ring, Newton and a host of others.

Why I Bough an iPhone Vs. Any Google Device

December 12, 2011

John Simonds capitalism, iphone, iPod, microsoft, technology , , , , , 1 Comment

It took me this long to finally buy an iPhone.  I waited until the right carrier had it (AT&T is a diversity nightmare), then my current provider didn’t have international covered because of CDMA.  So when that all came online, I then had to wait for an upgrade time so that I wouldn’t pay an arm/leg/firstborn.  It wasn’t a feature to feature comparison, 3G or 4G or any other techie issue that caused it.  It was because I know Google, have worked with Eric Schmidt  and believe they are evil about their intentions with our data, public or private.

Before any hate mail comes in that Apple does it too, I turn off location services when I leave the house and can confuse them enough that tracking me doesn’t me do them any good….not that anyone would/should care.  I’m a statistic to them and so be it.

Disclaimer:  I’ve had an iPod since 1994 (rotary wheel version) and have an iPad and iPod before I bought the phone, but I worked with/against Google and have met Eric Schmidt at a partner conference.  I don’t trust Google nor do I trust Schmidt as I heard what they are up to.  Basically the same thing as Pinky and the Brain are after, take over the world.

I and I believe they are sincere.  Apple developers are trying to build an ad base to compete against the world/Google, but I can turn them off…..Google follows me, my house, what I buy and everything else…..then are all too happy to share it with those I don’t want them knowing I exist.

In the quest for data analytics, companies have sold their soul.  Google and IBM are at the top of this data list, closely followed by Oracle, only closely in this case as they are hampered by a leader who holds them back from becoming a great (or modern) company.

OPEN SOURCE VS. PROPRIETARY.

Most analyst’s I talk to have Android so that they can practice what they preach, it’s an open world.  Well open source doesn’t work as well and smooth as IOS, so I don’t give a rat’s rump about this.  I just want it to work and for me not to have to fix or code one more device.  Most open systems require tinkering far too often.  So I’m calling BS on that argument.  I’m a consumer with too much going on to have a device that doesn’t work every time and easily.

SECURITY

It appears that Smartphones are now being attacked by malware and theft.  I know of 2 so far on IOS, but Android seems to be up 90%, so it looks like Apps on this OS are easier to break into.  This was not my initial decision point, but has skyrocketed to my list of concerns within a short period of time.

MY PREVIOUS SMARTPHONE

I had one of the newest Blackberry’s and in one word of advice for those who are considering buying it….don’t.  The interface is archaic compared to IOS and I got it because of a corporate policy that stuck me with a device that was hard to use.  I had to take it the phone store to set up the special things I wanted (I have about 7 email addresses and many special things related to what I do, and BTW I set them up myself on the iPhone) and have set up phones and computers for 31 years….before things were easy so I know how to reverse engineer without instructions

One thing I liked about Google was that 3 executives owned 8 corporate jets.  God Bless Capitalism.  I think IBM has a whole fleet of jets for the executives also so they “don’t” have to fly commercial.  Too inconvenient I guess.  It’s the same for most corporations.

Anyway I bought the iPhone.

BTW, I’ll never buy another Windows/Microsoft product again now that I work for myself.  They can only treat me this poorly (since Windows was released) for so long before I vote with my own money like I did here….

It looks like I’m not the only one.  ZDNet wrote this a few days after I wrote about my travails.

Is the PC Dead Or Is It Marketing Hype and Spin?

September 23, 2011

John Simonds apple, ibm, iphone, iPod, microsoft, technology, Uncategorized , , , , Leave a comment

The Real Meaning in Marketing Speak

In the mid 2000′s, Sam Palmisano of IBM declared the era of the PC is over.  This was somewhat of a marketing move since IBM had just sold the PC Division to Lenovo.  What he really meant was that IBM is getting out of consumer products.  IBM also sold other consumer divisions that were not the margin kings that Software and Services were.  Disclaimer, after working either for/with/against/partnering with IBM for 31 years, I can say that a lot of what they do is incredible spin on pretty good technology.  I had better knowledge of what was going on than what was told to the outside.

PC’s are Toasters Now

This is a bit of a history lesson.  There was a time that PC’s were special and had value.  They still can be found on almost every desk or backpack at an airport, but in reality they are now (and have been for a while) a consumer product.  There gets to a point in time in every product’s life cycle that economies of scale and parts availability drive this value (and therefore the price) down when you can’t differntiate.  It is compounded by newer technologies (tablet computers and mobile devices) to where you can get them at any consumer store that sells toasters, video games and TV’s.  Any improvement is just a little bit better (except Windows which usually is worse), not an era better which was the case when they were new.

PC’s have done this to themselves over the years.  Remember when all you could get was a bulky desktop?  Technology moved on to the luggable computer to the laptop. Now you can get a wafer thin Macbook Air (for a premium price), but the technology curve will drive cost down here when every manufacturer offers it.  Margins are razor thin and there is minimal hardware differentiation on the Wintel platform.

The Effect of iPad and Mobile Phones

Ultimately, the world is driving your communications and computing device to be in your hand.  The end game of input is not a keyboard, but voice.  This addresses the need for instantaneous that we have required as we’ve shifted from email to IM and texting, and from blogging to tweeting. I envision a vision screen that is projected by your small handheld that lets you see what a huge monitor is required for now in the near future.  For more on this, see Project Blade Runner as an example of what the future could look like.

PC’s are already under fire from Tablet computing and smartphones.  While at some point you still need a PC for complicated input/output such as the dreaded Powerpoint and the more mundane payroll/HR applications, they soon will be adapted to tablets as we easily morphed from immobile desktops to laptops.

Many analysts have shown that more phones and tablets are sold than PC’s.  More texts are sent than emails and we certainly have more tweets than blogs.

The Cloud

Powering a lot of this of course is the overhyped Cloud model.  While conceptually it has been around for a long time (we have called it client/server and other names), it is a software delivery model that will make the end device irrelevant.  Perhaps you could get your email on your toaster or refrigerator.  You could make phone calls by dialing in the air at some point.  The issue is that we are driving the connecting device smaller, cheaper and more powerful (and less relevant) so that we can get what we want, when we want it and wherever we want it.

Lenovo and HP

Companies are jumping out of this market as evidenced by IBM and HP willing to sell their PC businesses worth billions in revenue, mostly because of low single digit profit margin.  They realize that there isn’t much money to be made anymore, again putting them in the toaster category. Similar components by most, similar operating systems, market driving memory and storage costs and overhead to sell.  HP is now particularly vulnerable as companies negotiating long term contracts will throw HP out  as a viable vendor not knowing what their future will be either in terms of ownership or viability.  HP has completely lost their way starting with the purchase of Compaq years ago, then dumping their tablet, announcing the sale of their PC division and switching CEO’s like underwear.

The Apple Factor

Everyone eventually builds a better mousetrap.  The Mac has been around for a long time, but the entry way to the door to Apple changed with the iPad/iPhone.  A new processor, operating system visibility, technology paradigm, profit potential and the coolness factor make Apple a different model than the PC.  Prior to that, Mac’s were a niche player in the creative, advertising and education world.  This has changed partly because the OS is better, Windows is not a great platform and Mac’s are headed in the direction of iPads.

So Is the PC Dead?

Ultimately yes, but not this year or in the near future.  I’ve seen models of computers called bricks the size of your phone that you can drop in a kiosk and work anywhere.  You can even use them like an iPhone if needed, but until the voice input issue is resolved, keyboard input is an inhibitor.

No one thought we’d ever see the end of typewriters, faxing or even the 360, but technology advances at an increasing rate economically speaking.  What will be interesting is which social mores we’ll break like talking to ourselves (on a cellphone) in public (or worse in a bathroom or driving).

Is the iPad the next endgame?  Likely also not.  Companies are trying to out do themselves and we’ll wind up like the Jetson’s one day.

June 14, Flag Day, Fathers Day, Thoughts and Curves

September 1, 2011

John Simonds Uncategorized Leave a comment

Here is another blog that WordPress lost in my transition.  This one is from 6/14/2008.

First things first, it is my parents Anniversary. They would have been married 55 years today. It is the first June 14th that has passed that both of them are gone.

Today is also Flag Day. Unlike the bitter half of one of our candidates, I’ve always been proud of my country.

And of course, the greatest moment in Flag Saving History, Rick Monday Saves a Flag from being burned.

Birth of the Army – In 1775, this was the birth of the Army, thank you George Washington. The only thing the government has done consistently right is to defend our country. I hope the next president keeps that in mind

Fathers day – Tomorrow is Father’s Day. My Dad isn’t around any more. If yours is, appreciate the time you have left. In honor of him, I drove his car, on the curvyest road I could find. His car was meant for the turns.

Today was also the start of the 24 Hours of LeMans. I used to go to races with my Dad, in the car pictured here. So I’m melancholy today. In honor of our memories, I bought a grille badge on eBay.

So I thought about my parents, the country…and while I was exceeding the speed limit, enjoying the curves.

Update on Grocery Shopping

September 1, 2011

John Simonds family, humor , , , , Leave a comment

I originally wrote about my shopping adventures from as much as 30 years ago mentioning dressing for the store, meeting someone at work, bikini’s, girls in the frozen isle….and other observations.  Instead of just being out of college which was the perspective of the original blog, I’m now buying groceries for a college student.

I also wrote about the old people and their habits.  It dawned on me today I’m almost one of them now.  I go on BOGO (buy one get one free) day.  My day is complete when I can get BOGO with a coupon for double savings.  When did I get this old?  Actually I’m just smarter with our money now and know there are deals to be had.

I’m even getting balloons for my dog to play with as they float and it gives her great pleasure to bark at them.  If I could just get her to breath in the helium and bark, I’d be the one howling with laughter.

Just think, one more year and I can get another 5% off for senior discount on Thursdays!

Duh, Science Confirms the Obvious

September 1, 2011

John Simonds hunting, obvious , , Leave a comment

Another post that got lost which I liked.

From Popsci.com.

I get the part about cigarettes cost you money, combining drugs and alcohol are bad for you…but get number 3 meeting heads!

3. Too Many Meetings Make You Grumpy

The Study: “The relationship between meeting load and . . . well-being of employees,” Group Dynamics, March 2005

The Findings: Ever get the feeling that you’d get more work done if you weren’t constantly attending meetings to discuss all the work to be done? Two social scientists from the universities of Minnesota and North Carolina hypothesized that meetings are analogous to “hassles,” defined in stress-research literature as “annoying episodes in which daily tasks become more difficult or demanding than anticipated.” The psychologists analyzed diary entries from 37 meeting-prone midlevel university workers over one week. They found that days chock-full of meetings left employees feeling stressed, exhausted and burned out.

Why Bother? Employers take heed: Since beleaguered workers may perform poorly, be tardy, or quit, the authors suggest that “organizations be sensitive to the number of meetings employees are required to attend.” Managers could create “formal guidelines” for meeting necessity (presumably not drafted at a meeting).

Here’s another Mr. Obvious, dudes prefer good looking women?  Who’d have guessed it?

When You See a Deer You See Bambi, And I see Antlers Up On the Wall

September 1, 2011

John Simonds fishing, humor, hunting , , Leave a comment

This originally appeared 12/3/2007, but was lost during a transition to WordPress (fail there).  I’m re-posting it as it was my son’s first deer.  Since then he has harvested more food for us, and hat racks for the wall.

Here is the Post:

With all kudos to Brad Paisley, I took my son hunting… and here is his first deer, a nice 8 pointer.   To you vegetarians, sorry, but I’m an outdoorsman and I believe in being able to take care of yourself which is growing and harvesting your food…..both meat and vegetables.  After all, I love vegetarians….most of what I eat are vegetarians anyway.

It’s also because of hunting and fishing that I get to connect with my offspring.  I see many parents fighting with their kids, but we’re getting to spend hours together away from the computer, video games and other distractions that are potentially harmful to teenagers. We put the deer stand together, painted it camo, grew the food plots and reaped the rewards.

We also fed a herd of 50+ animals and worked the land from scrub to ecologically very fruitful and crop producing.

As Brad says, “but what can I say at the end of the day, honey I’m still a guy” .

Here is the song on YouTube:

Finances and Bible Verses

August 30, 2011

John Simonds Uncategorized Leave a comment

Money is one of the most quoted subjects in the Bible.  Many people are suffering right now because of countries governments mis-managing spending debt and other people’s money.-

I’ve always lived by the Larry Burkett and Dave Ramsey debt free living, and giving back to G-d first.  For you non-believers, at least learn the lesson of a debt free lifestyle.

Out of nowhere on the same day come two blogs that mention this.  Christian Personal Finance and Faith and Finance with scriptures about money.

You should click on either (CPF has 250 verses and F&F has 101) to know what to do with your money in these tough times.

The Original Press Release for the IBM PC in 1981

August 13, 2011

John Simonds history, ibm, terrorism , , Leave a comment

At 4 pages (typed on a typewriter), here is the original Press Release for the IBM PC from 1981.  Judge for yourself the writing style.

At $4500, you could get a fully configured 64k PC with 2 360k floppy disk drives and a small dot matrix printer.  Such a deal.  I’m pretty sure that there are wristwatches with more computing power available now.

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