Is the PC Dead Or Is It Marketing Hype and Spin?

Update: Apple is more nails in the PC coffin with the new announcement of Post PC devices.

  • 362 Apple stores
  • 315 million iOS devices sold through last year, including 62 million in the last quarter
  • 585,000 apps created
  • 25 billion app downloads
  • 1080p movies and TV shows for iCloud and the new Apple TV
  • 15.4 million iPads sold in the fourth quarter of 2011
  • 200,000+ iPad apps
  • 2048 by 1536 pixels displayed on the new iPad, with 264 pixels per inch
  • 44 percent greater color saturation than the old iPad
  • 5 megapixel sensor on the new iPad camera
  • A maximum of 73 mbps downlink with 4G LTE on new iPad
  • New iPad specs: 10 hours of battery life, nine hours with 4G; 9.4 millimeters thick, 1.4 pounds
  • Same pricing as last iPad: Wi-Fi models are $499 for 16 gigabytes, $599 for 32GB, $699 for 64GB; $629, $729 and $829, if you want 4G
  • Old iPad now starts at $399 and $529

The Real Meaning in Marketing Speak

In the mid 2000’s, Sam Palmisano of IBM declared the era of the PC is over.  This was somewhat of a marketing move since IBM had just sold the PC Division to Lenovo.  What he really meant was that IBM is getting out of consumer products.  IBM also sold other consumer divisions that were not the margin kings that Software and Services were.  Disclaimer, after working either for/with/against/partnering with IBM for 31 years, I can say that a lot of what they do is incredible spin on pretty good technology.  I had better knowledge of what was going on than what was told to the outside.

PC’s are Toasters Now

This is a bit of a history lesson.  There was a time that PC’s were special and had value.  They still can be found on almost every desk or backpack at an airport, but in reality they are now (and have been for a while) a consumer product.  There gets to a point in time in every product’s life cycle that economies of scale and parts availability drive this value (and therefore the price) down when you can’t differntiate.  It is compounded by newer technologies (tablet computers and mobile devices) to where you can get them at any consumer store that sells toasters, video games and TV’s.  Any improvement is just a little bit better (except Windows which usually is worse), not an era better which was the case when they were new.

PC’s have done this to themselves over the years.  Remember when all you could get was a bulky desktop?  Technology moved on to the luggable computer to the laptop. Now you can get a wafer thin Macbook Air (for a premium price), but the technology curve will drive cost down here when every manufacturer offers it.  Margins are razor thin and there is minimal hardware differentiation on the Wintel platform.

The Effect of iPad and Mobile Phones

Ultimately, the world is driving your communications and computing device to be in your hand.  The end game of input is not a keyboard, but voice.  This addresses the need for instantaneous that we have required as we’ve shifted from email to IM and texting, and from blogging to tweeting. I envision a vision screen that is projected by your small handheld that lets you see what a huge monitor is required for now in the near future.  For more on this, see Project Blade Runner as an example of what the future could look like.

PC’s are already under fire from Tablet computing and smartphones.  While at some point you still need a PC for complicated input/output such as the dreaded Powerpoint and the more mundane payroll/HR applications, they soon will be adapted to tablets as we easily morphed from immobile desktops to laptops.

Many analysts have shown that more phones and tablets are sold than PC’s.  More texts are sent than emails and we certainly have more tweets than blogs.

The Cloud

Powering a lot of this of course is the overhyped Cloud model.  While conceptually it has been around for a long time (we have called it client/server and other names), it is a software delivery model that will make the end device irrelevant.  Perhaps you could get your email on your toaster or refrigerator.  You could make phone calls by dialing in the air at some point.  The issue is that we are driving the connecting device smaller, cheaper and more powerful (and less relevant) so that we can get what we want, when we want it and wherever we want it.

Lenovo and HP

Companies are jumping out of this market as evidenced by IBM and HP willing to sell their PC businesses worth billions in revenue, mostly because of low single digit profit margin.  They realize that there isn’t much money to be made anymore, again putting them in the toaster category. Similar components by most, similar operating systems, market driving memory and storage costs and overhead to sell.  HP is now particularly vulnerable as companies negotiating long term contracts will throw HP out  as a viable vendor not knowing what their future will be either in terms of ownership or viability.  HP has completely lost their way starting with the purchase of Compaq years ago, then dumping their tablet, announcing the sale of their PC division and switching CEO’s like underwear.

The Apple Factor

Everyone eventually builds a better mousetrap.  The Mac has been around for a long time, but the entry way to the door to Apple changed with the iPad/iPhone.  A new processor, operating system visibility, technology paradigm, profit potential and the coolness factor make Apple a different model than the PC.  Prior to that, Mac’s were a niche player in the creative, advertising and education world.  This has changed partly because the OS is better, Windows is not a great platform and Mac’s are headed in the direction of iPads.

So Is the PC Dead?

Ultimately yes, but not this year or in the near future.  I’ve seen models of computers called bricks the size of your phone that you can drop in a kiosk and work anywhere.  You can even use them like an iPhone if needed, but until the voice input issue is resolved, keyboard input is an inhibitor.

No one thought we’d ever see the end of typewriters, faxing or even the 360, but technology advances at an increasing rate economically speaking.  What will be interesting is which social mores we’ll break like talking to ourselves (on a cellphone) in public (or worse in a bathroom or driving).

Is the iPad the next endgame?  Likely also not.  Companies are trying to out do themselves and we’ll wind up like the Jetson’s one day.

June 14, Flag Day, Fathers Day, Thoughts and Curves

Here is another blog that WordPress lost in my transition.  This one is from 6/14/2008.

First things first, it is my parents Anniversary. They would have been married 55 years today. It is the first June 14th that has passed that both of them are gone.

Today is also Flag Day. Unlike the bitter half of one of our candidates, I’ve always been proud of my country.

And of course, the greatest moment in Flag Saving History, Rick Monday Saves a Flag from being burned.

Birth of the Army – In 1775, this was the birth of the Army, thank you George Washington. The only thing the government has done consistently right is to defend our country. I hope the next president keeps that in mind

Fathers day – Tomorrow is Father’s Day. My Dad isn’t around any more. If yours is, appreciate the time you have left. In honor of him, I drove his car, on the curvyest road I could find. His car was meant for the turns.

Today was also the start of the 24 Hours of LeMans. I used to go to races with my Dad, in the car pictured here. So I’m melancholy today. In honor of our memories, I bought a grille badge on eBay.

So I thought about my parents, the country…and while I was exceeding the speed limit, enjoying the curves.

Update on Grocery Shopping

I originally wrote about my shopping adventures from as much as 30 years ago mentioning dressing for the store, meeting someone at work, bikini’s, girls in the frozen isle….and other observations.  Instead of just being out of college which was the perspective of the original blog, I’m now buying groceries for a college student.

I also wrote about the old people and their habits.  It dawned on me today I’m almost one of them now.  I go on BOGO (buy one get one free) day.  My day is complete when I can get BOGO with a coupon for double savings.  When did I get this old?  Actually I’m just smarter with our money now and know there are deals to be had.

I’m even getting balloons for my dog to play with as they float and it gives her great pleasure to bark at them.  If I could just get her to breath in the helium and bark, I’d be the one howling with laughter.

Just think, one more year and I can get another 5% off for senior discount on Thursdays!

Duh, Science Confirms the Obvious

Another post that got lost which I liked.

From Popsci.com.

I get the part about cigarettes cost you money, combining drugs and alcohol are bad for you…but get number 3 meeting heads!

3. Too Many Meetings Make You Grumpy

The Study: “The relationship between meeting load and . . . well-being of employees,” Group Dynamics, March 2005

The Findings: Ever get the feeling that you’d get more work done if you weren’t constantly attending meetings to discuss all the work to be done? Two social scientists from the universities of Minnesota and North Carolina hypothesized that meetings are analogous to “hassles,” defined in stress-research literature as “annoying episodes in which daily tasks become more difficult or demanding than anticipated.” The psychologists analyzed diary entries from 37 meeting-prone midlevel university workers over one week. They found that days chock-full of meetings left employees feeling stressed, exhausted and burned out.

Why Bother? Employers take heed: Since beleaguered workers may perform poorly, be tardy, or quit, the authors suggest that “organizations be sensitive to the number of meetings employees are required to attend.” Managers could create “formal guidelines” for meeting necessity (presumably not drafted at a meeting).

Here’s another Mr. Obvious, dudes prefer good looking women?  Who’d have guessed it?

When You See a Deer You See Bambi, And I see Antlers Up On the Wall

This originally appeared 12/3/2007, but was lost during a transition to WordPress (fail there).  I’m re-posting it as it was my son’s first deer.  Since then he has harvested more food for us, and hat racks for the wall.

Here is the Post:

With all kudos to Brad Paisley, I took my son hunting… and here is his first deer, a nice 8 pointer.   To you vegetarians, sorry, but I’m an outdoorsman and I believe in being able to take care of yourself which is growing and harvesting your food…..both meat and vegetables.  After all, I love vegetarians….most of what I eat are vegetarians anyway.

It’s also because of hunting and fishing that I get to connect with my offspring.  I see many parents fighting with their kids, but we’re getting to spend hours together away from the computer, video games and other distractions that are potentially harmful to teenagers. We put the deer stand together, painted it camo, grew the food plots and reaped the rewards.

We also fed a herd of 50+ animals and worked the land from scrub to ecologically very fruitful and crop producing.

As Brad says, “but what can I say at the end of the day, honey I’m still a guy” .

Here is the song on YouTube: