How An Average Joe Can Be A Millionaire

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Notice that I didn’t use the words becoming rich.  Having a full life, belief in God, friends, family or a passion for doing something is rich.  Becoming a millionaire is about money.

Next, this subject has been addressed by the more knowledgeable than I, but I’m going to talk to the average Joe like me, which is the likely reader here.

Finally, I don’t claim to know it all, nor do I claim to be in any financial category.  I do observe trends and try to learn from them.  Hopefully I’m eating my own dogfood.

HOW IT IS DONE

It is simple math.  You either make money or spend less, or a combination of the two.  I realize that we have a burdensome government, a tough economy and a next to impossible IRS tax code.  In fact the real unemployment number is not what you read in the main stream media, but the U6 rate which as of this writing is 14.5%.

For the purposes of becoming a millionaire, we will assume employment.  That means get a job instead of living on entitlements, because that will disqualify you from this discussion.

Sure it is easy to have received Facebook stock or have invented Facebook, but the average millionaire doesn’t have that at their discretion.

USE YOUR MONEY TO MAKE MONEY

This means compounding what you have in ways other than just putting it in the bank.  I had a roommate who was a stockbroker and he told me many stories of secretaries making minimum wage who came to him at retirement with 7 figure 401K accounts.  They saved in a way that maximized the return on their investment.  This usually involves a company match and some diversification.  It also assumes that you take risk when you are younger and seek advice or study investing voraciously as it is a mystery to most….despite the fact that everyone thinks they know about it.

Part of your diversification also means not putting everything in the stock market.  As an example, real estate has just undergone a busted bubble (thanks to the Community Reinvestment Act which never should have been enacted), but it means there are properties to be had for a song right now and are ripe for the picking.  They will grow and become more valuable.  My advice is no different from what you’d expect.  Start out small and work your way up.  That process allows you to learn about what value really is, and compound your earnings into larger investments that have bigger payoffs.

There are many other ways, but the concept is the same, save and invest wisely by starting small and growing your profits and portfolio.  You must also study and read or you could throw your money down the drain if you think you know everything.  It also involves patience.  If you recall the story from my roommate, it was saving and investing over a lifetime

HOW TO LEARN

There are articles ad-infinitum to read about the aforementioned.  The other way is to talk to people who have done this.  I suggest that you start with Dave Ramsey or Crown Financial Ministries if you are starting out (or are in trouble, or anywhere in between).  It is a tried and true method of handling you money.

Who you talk to also matters.  There are people who talk in $10′s of thousands, $100′s of thousands, millions or Zuckerberg’s and Gates’.  I suggest you seek out those who are in the highest category possible as you need to think big in making and investing.  I don’t have coffee with Warren Buffet, but his advice is readily available.

Find those who are successful and ask them how they did it.  I’m betting that you’ll find there is no secret code or magic key, they just worked at it and kept their long-term goals of financial independence in mind, and kept check over their human nature.

SAVE YOUR MONEY

The other side of the equation is savings.  In other words you need to spend less and when you do, spend wisely.  Of the people I worked with at my last job, many were high salaried executives who were in debt because they had a keeping (or passing) up with the Jones mentality.  This was especially true of those in the New York area for some reason, but demographics shouldn’t really matter.  They had big houses with unfurnished rooms because they were house poor.  Living within your means is important which is my next segue.

NEED VS. WANT

Including the basics of food, clothing and shelter, one has to look at the way one buys things.  Most buy what they want rather than what they need.  If you adopt the buy it tomorrow instead of now mentality, you likely will realize that you don’t really want it as badly as you think.

There is the adequacy (not delusions of adequacy ;-) ) vs. luxury mentality also.  A Casio, Timex or Seiko watch tell as good of time as does a Rolex, so unless you have money to burn why are you buying the Rolex?  This applies to cars, clothes or virtually any tangible item.  Ask yourself, self do I need this/do I need to have the very best/am I showing off or would what I can really afford with what I have?

Back to the person who knows this better than most, here is a story about expensive car drivers:

But what if Ranger Rich is like many people who define rich in terms of income instead of net worth? Certainly many drivers feel the need to display their socioeconomic achievements by acquiring prestige makes of motor vehicles.  They may think that those who are successful in generating high incomes drive luxury brands.  And correspondingly drivers of more common makes have dull normal income credentials.  But the hard data suggest that the level of prestige of a car and the income of its driver are not anywhere near being perfect correlates. In fact, many drivers of luxury makes have neither the levels of income nor net worth which would qualify them as high economic achievers.

Along these lines, Joann Muller, writing for Forbes.com, poses “what the rich people really drive.” She defines rich people in terms of income, not net worth.

. . . the richest people were the most likely to buy luxury brands [39% for people with household income above $250,000 vs. 8% for those people who earn less than $100,000 a year].

. . .61% of people who earn $250,000 or more aren’t buying luxury brands at all.

Her analysis indicates that those households with high incomes are more likely to drive luxury cars.  But just because someone is driving a luxury brand it does not necessarily mean that the driver has a high income or a high net worth, for that matter.

DEBT AND LEVERAGE

This gets most people in trouble.  If you can’t pay off your credit card each month, you effectively are paying more for what you bought (because of the interest).  Compounding works for debt in the same way as it does for savings.  It is the accumulation that is the issue.  I’m not just picking on credit cards, anything can be substituted here.  If you saved first, you could buy it for less and your want will likely decrease.

For housing, it used to be that you had to put at least 10% down, but due to the above mentioned CRA (can you tell I loathe that legislation?) one could buy a house they couldn’t afford because they were told they qualified for it…. with no money down.  You were PLAYED for a fool on this.  Living below your means is the best policy.

If you care to splurge on something, it’s OK….just don’t borrow.

The same can be said for leverage.  I’ll stay on housing here.  Banks will always want you to buy more as the more you borrow, the richer they get.  Typically one is paying at least 3 times the amount for a big-ticket item buy leveraging which brings me to my next segue.

PAY OFF YOUR HOUSE

The wisest know that man can not serve two masters.  When you have a huge mortgage hanging over your head, it is your boss/master/slave driver/keep you up at night worry/cause of divorce or many other.

Besides owning a house within or below your means, paying it off early is the best way to get out of debt and improve your cash flow.  Take out a mortgage less than 30 years, pay more than the minimum and do everything you can to pay it off early.

Forget the argument that it is a tax deduction.  Congress is aiming at trying to take that away as I type.  Also, any money you get back on taxes is just an interest free loan to the government at your expense.

By doing this, for most people it will likely be one of the best long-term financial decisions they can make.

IN CONCLUSION

There is no conclusion, just work and keep your long term goal in mind.  I may talk later about other basic ideas that contribute to this like paying cash instead of credit (briefly mentioned here), couponing, buying the store brand instead of the premium name brand and other tricks.  Nevertheless, adhering to the above puts you well on your way to being the average Joe millionaire.

More on the Gitmo Trials

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Trying  not to cooperate, the terrorists accomplished their jobs.  What is ironic is that in 2008, they already pleaded guilty so they could die as martyrs.  If the trial had not been stopped so Attorney General Holder could put them on display, this would have been over.

To provide balanced coverage, I picked a site that is the opposite in ideology from yesterday’s source.  I will let the readers make a decision on who covers it fairly.  I only care about justice.

The other defendants — Ramzi Binalshibh, Walid bin Attash, Ali Abdul Aziz Ali and Mustafa al Hawsawi – joined Mohammed in refusing to answer questions from Army Col. James Pohl, the judge presiding over the proceedings.

At one point, two defendants got up and prayed alongside their defense tables under the watchful eyes of troops arrayed along the sides of the high-security courtroom.

Bin Attash was put in a restraint chair for unspecified reasons, then removed from it after he agreed to behave.

Lawyers for all defendants complained that the prisoners were prevented from wearing the civilian clothes of their choice, in a proceeding equally slowed by technical legal questions about defense complaints about the court’s authority and access to evidence and translators.

Brigadier General Mark Martins, the chief prosecutor of the Pentagon’s Office of U.S. Military Commissions told Fox News that he “understands the skepticism” about access to evidence, but some still remains classified.

Mohammed’s civilian lawyer, David Nevin, said his client was not responding because he believes the tribunal is unfair. He also suggested Mohammed was not wearing the earphones because it reminded him of being tortured.

All 5 men occasionally looked through what looks like the Koran, magazines, and other reading materials.

IBM Purging The Old Guard, More Unofficial Layoffs

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Any other company in this age of litigiousness would be suspect, perhaps for alleged age discrimination.  Fortunately, IBM has been in enough lawsuits that the wording, terms and coercion are carefully crafted and legally reviewed……Heck, we couldn’t use the word monopoly in any press release decades after the monopoly lawsuit.

Here it is ->

IBMers who are qualified to apply are:

• Employees who received a satisfactory or higher performance rating in 2011
• Employees who participate in IBM pension plans currently or by Jan. 1, 2014
• Have met the criteria of at least 30 years of service regardless of age
• Are at least 55 with 15 or more years of service
• Or are at least 62 with five or more years of service
• Or are at least 65 with one year of service
• More recently hired IBMers who participate only in IBM’s 401k “Plus” plan if they are age 62 as of Jan. 1, 2014

I know a lot of folks who fit in this class. They are smarter and wiser than those who will be filling their shoes.  In some cases, they are some of the smartest people in IBM like Rod, Jeff and maybe even Bob.

This has the outward appearances of a Wall Street promotion.  Stocks have a tendency to rise when companies announce anything tantamount to layoffs and as I detail later, IBM seems to be focusing on EPS more than innovation.

HOW TO MASK ANY DISCRIMINATION

This program is made “voluntary” with a guarantee of no RA or resource action (being fired in IBM speak) if you promise to retire in 2013 (loads of part time work).  You can logically deduct that there will be more people RA’d as predicted a while back here and here (as far back as February).  You can bet there is a slice of this population that will benefit from this as they would have been RA’s later this year.  The alternative is that a major division such as GBS or GTS which both are treading water could be sold off.

It’s roots go back to the FAP (financial assistance program) back when Gerstner took over and got rid of all the dead weight roaming the halls of IBM (which may be why they are doing it again).   Give them enough money to leave and be quiet and you can dump any crowd you target.  Most people rarely get this good of an out, so watch the IBM passengers jump the ship like it was sinking.

IT’S WHO IS LEAVING THAT IS IMPORTANT

Remember that at the end of the day, IBM is still a mainframe company despite the barrage of services and software messaging and reporting…..their job is to service the mainframe .  Most of the software they sell is for the mainframe as it is “middleware”.

Over 40% (48 I think is the number so almost 50%) of Systems and Technology Group (STG or the Mainframe group) are in this retirement category.  That means those with all the knowledge of how stuff works is leaving.  Sure there will be a lot of youngsters who can tweet, but veteran VLSI chip designers and circuit board layout engineers for the next Cloud server are gone.

This means the will have to hire back the folks that know what is going on, or know how to program in COBOL.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THEY ACCEPT THE BUYOUT?

Nothing.  That’s right, even for the most conscientious of employees, people are going to stop working with them so it is a vacation the rest of the year.

You see, IBM is a place where you call around to get someone else to handle some or all of your work especially in an emergency (it always is when Ginni says get it done which gets thrown around in vain now).  If first choice (the person in charge of the product) is not available, you move on to the next likely source until you get someone to take on the task.  When you know a person is only in for 3 days a week, you stop going to them as the pressure is so high that to get your job done you will go elsewhere.  This of course puts the burden on everyone else to do more with less knowledge, hence a job done worse or you get time back due to not enough people to hold the meeting ;-)

THE PENSION PLAN

A while back, if you did not have 20 years of service, you got moved off the pension plan (the gravy train) and onto a cash balance plan (401k with your money and a little bump from IBM) to placate any hint of discrimination, an event which can clearly be tied to this announcement.

I got a letter from IBM that said the plan was only funded to 88% this year.  They need to get people off this plan so IBM is not required by the government to make it 100%.  While it is an off balance sheet item for now, it still is a liability.

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THE 2015 EPS CLAIM

IBM made a prediction that it will pay $20 EPS in 2015.  I believe it will with this announcement.  Older workers make more, have more costly healthcare and can’t be persuaded to work 100 hours a week as easily as millennial’s.  You have to make sales, tough in this economy or cut expenses.  Payroll (including benefits) is a big number on any company’s financials, so this is a good place to drop the knife.  Nothing stands in the way of this number.

They are going to buy back $7 billion in shares, get rid of expensive employees and cut to the bone any group that isn’t highly profitable and bingo, $20 it is tattooed on the backs of the employees known as Roadkill 2015.

Conversely, if you read the book by Thomas Watson Jr., he quoted that his father (founder of IBM) always hired in times of trouble so he could be ready for the time things turned around.  I’m trusting that IBM will make a move to hire a lot of new graduates to work in the USA as replacements.

WHO GETS HURT

The Customer, period. (editors note: the employees that make it to 2015 except those in the NY club get it also)

Cut out the product knowledge and you have marketing messaging for your products (Smarter anything is the nom de Jour). You’ll see innovation suffer due to this talent drain.  There are really smart people at IBM and I’m sure there will be more, just without the benefit of the person who blazed the trail).  When you let the bean counters make the decisions for the future, cutting expenses is the goal.  Perhaps, IBM will find the next Mark Zuckerberg to work for Big Data?

So expect some letdown in quality and surely morale, just like the rest of the industry (prediction, Apple’s next product will be google wave or plus or Newton capable).

In a way, this even’s the playing field and will be fun to watch unless Oracle, Google, Microsoft and HP can screw up worse.

BIGGEST LOSS OF ALL?

Steve Mills has been there over 30 years and qualifies.

UPDATE

It seems that for those who qualify, this is a wildly popular program.  It is a once in a lifetime (for most) to get paid to leave and work less in the transition while planning your retirement.  There is some high fiving in the hallways knowing that the light at the end of the tunnel just got brighter.  They say it’ll be one big long vacation for the old timers to end their career.

WHITEHOUSE: “Take It From Me: Defending Obamacare is Super-Hard” IT’S A CRAP SANDWICH

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From the Whitehouse via Don Surber:

I am pretty sure Reid Cherlin, the departing White House spokesman on health care, won’t like the headline, but after reading his commentary for GQ — “Take It From Me: Defending Obamacare is Super-Hard” — I can only conclude that he knows Obamacare is a crap sandwich. While he does not blame President Obama for this colossal mess that Democrats abandoned on the steps of the Supreme Court building, Reid Cherlin sure is disappointed in the centerpiece of President Obama’s domestic policy.

From Reid Cherlin:

The consensus seems to be that we should crap on Solicitor General Don Verrilli for struggling to defend the individual mandate.

Don is someone I worked with and respected, so I will leave dissection of his efforts to those who are farther removed and better schooled in Supreme Court procedure. But I will say this: having spent a year of my life getting paid to defend the ACA as the White House spokesman on health care, I feel for the guy. Health care reform is very much worth defending, but going about that defense is where things get, well, difficult.

It would have been easy for Verrilli — or any of us — to explain single-payer health care. “Look,” we could have said, “the government is paying for everyone to have coverage.” End of story. But single-payer is not what our brilliant, world-leading political system gave us. What it gave us is essentially a halfsy — an extraordinarily confusing patchwork in which some novel legislative mechanisms are used to induce individuals, businesses, insurance companies, and states into doing things that add up to concrete good.

Read more from the link above, it’s not going to be pretty.  Spin starts already

2010: It’s SILLY TO CHALLENGE OBAMACARE

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From Don Surber on a history lesson:

From Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and then-Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray on April 2, 2010:

Nobody can seriously argue that the health care industry operates only in “intrastate” commerce and that the mandate provisions in this bill cannot be effectively disentangled from the comprehensive economic approach that Congress adopted to fix the deep flaws in our current health insurance system.

We live under mandates every day. Without them, society as we know it would disintegrate. Every criminal law tells us what we cannot do.

And sometimes the law tells us what we must do. Congress can require young Americans to register for the draft to serve in the military, for example, or can require us all to pay taxes for programs like Social Security and Medicare.

We can — and do — argue about what shape these laws should take, without claiming that our leaders are constitutionally barred from dealing with our most pressing problems.

Instead of pursuing lawsuits, we should work to find ways to improve the lives of the American people and protect our four most fundamental freedoms: of speech, of religion, from want and from fear.

Freedom from want and from free. It’s in the Constitution, alongside the right to sing the blues.

From Jonathan Cohn on April 24, 2010:

Most legal experts seem to think the lawsuits won’t succeed. Among other things, it turns out that the U.S. fought a large war, about a hundred and fifty years ago, in order to settle the issue of state nullification. But if the officials filing these suits seem not to understand that history–or at least, not to care about it — their opposition to the Affordable Care Act, like their supporters’, seems genuine. If they had their way, their states really would reject the new health care law.

You see, opposing Obamacare makes you part of the Confederate States of America and that makes you a racist.

For shame.

From Randy E. Barnett on March 21, 2010:

Can Congress really require that every person purchase health insurance from a private company or face a penalty? The answer lies in the commerce clause of the Constitution, which grants Congress the power “to regulate commerce . . . among the several states.” Historically, insurance contracts were not considered commerce, which referred to trade and carriage of merchandise. That’s why insurance has traditionally been regulated by states. But the Supreme Court has long allowed Congress to regulate and prohibit all sorts of “economic” activities that are not, strictly speaking, commerce. The key is that those activities substantially affect interstate commerce, and that’s how the court would probably view the regulation of health insurance.

There you have it. Constitutional. Now go away.

You are still there? OK, read this slowly — without moving your lips.

From the Atlantic Wire on March 23, 2010:

Why court challenges will fail

Mandates Are Constitutional. The Daily Beast’s Adam Winkler defends the Constitutionality of the mandate. “Because the individual mandate is a tax provision that promotes the general welfare, it is within Congress’ taxing power. This is one of broadest grants of authority the Constitution gives Congress.” He quips, “In fact, the Founding Fathers themselves included an ‘individual mandate’ in a law way back in 1792.” They wrote a law requiring “free able-bodied” serve in militias–with a gun they had to buy on their own.

Courts Give Congress Power Here. The New York Times’ John Schwartz writes, “The broad extent of the government’s power to regulate interstate commerce has been recognized since the Roosevelt administration. In fact, courts have backed Congress’s ability to regulate under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, even when the issues might not seem, at first blush, to even involve interstate commerce at all.”

Can’t Be Challenged Until 2014. The Washington Independent’s David Weigel reports, “The problem with a challenge, say conservatives, is that the mandate for health care — an idea with origins on the right that has become anathema ever since its implementation in Massachusetts — will not take effect until 2014. Whether attorneys general can successfully challenge the mandate until then is unclear.” By then, the anti-health care fire will have died down considerably.

Winning Isn’t the Real Reason To Challenge. The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder says conservatives get it. “The chances of success in the Supreme Court are low, but the point of the lawsuits isn’t legal — it’s political. It advances the politics of conservative jurisprudence, and the political ambitions of conservatives, and it keeps the legislation itself in a state of suspended political animation.”

Got that last one? They see through you. This is not about a legal case. This is about politics. Embarrassing the president.

You are doomed. Doomed. Surrender Dorothy.

AND THIS DOOSY:

From Frank Rich on March 27, 2010:

When Social Security was passed by Congress in 1935 and Medicare in 1965, there was indeed heated opposition. As Dana Milbank wrote in The Washington Post, Alf Landon built his catastrophic 1936 presidential campaign on a call for repealing Social Security. (Democrats can only pray that the G.O.P. will “go for it” again in 2010, as Obama goaded them on Thursday, and keep demanding repeal of a bill that by September will shower benefits on the elderly and children alike.) When L.B.J. scored his Medicare coup, there were the inevitable cries of “socialism” along with ultimately empty rumblings of a boycott from the American Medical Association.

But there was nothing like this. To find a prototype for the overheated reaction to the health care bill, you have to look a year before Medicare, to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Both laws passed by similar majorities in Congress; the Civil Rights Act received even more votes in the Senate (73) than Medicare (70). But it was only the civil rights bill that made some Americans run off the rails. That’s because it was the one that signaled an inexorable and immutable change in the very identity of America, not just its governance.

The apocalyptic predictions then, like those about health care now, were all framed in constitutional pieties, of course. Barry Goldwater, running for president in ’64, drew on the counsel of two young legal allies, William Rehnquist and Robert Bork, to characterize the bill as a “threat to the very essence of our basic system” and a “usurpation” of states’ rights that “would force you to admit drunks, a known murderer or an insane person into your place of business.” Richard Russell, the segregationist Democratic senator from Georgia, said the bill “would destroy the free enterprise system.” David Lawrence, a widely syndicated conservative columnist, bemoaned the establishment of “a federal dictatorship.” Meanwhile, three civil rights workers were murdered in Philadelphia, Miss.

That a tsunami of anger is gathering today is illogical, given that what the right calls “Obamacare” is less provocative than either the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare, an epic entitlement that actually did precipitate a government takeover of a sizable chunk of American health care. But the explanation is plain: the health care bill is not the main source of this anger and never has been. It’s merely a handy excuse. The real source of the over-the-top rage of 2010 is the same kind of national existential reordering that roiled America in 1964.

You see it? You teabaggers are doomed — doomed — and you will kill black men out of your misplaced anger.

 

So there are some views from the past.  What will happen with the SCOTUS ruling?

 

 

Carville Senses Loss in Supreme Court Decision, Begins the Spin

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And it’s the usual, Carvelle blame it on the Republicans.  Heck, he even found a way to blame it on Bush.  The playbook stays the same, but we’re getting a sense on how the supreme’s are going to vote.  Looks like 5-4 against individual mandate.

re the Democrats expecting to lose the battle over healthcare? Judging from the comments made by several prominent Dems, the party is prepping for what to do after the high court shoots down the individual mandate.

Two days ago, former DNC Chair Howard Dean told CBS Early Morning that he expected the individual mandate to be overturned.

Yesterday, CNN’s Legal Analyst Jeffry Toobin called the proceedings “a train wreck” and predicted that the individual mandate will “likely be struck down.” If true, how will the Democrats then spin the defeat to their benefit? Enter James Carville.

Carville Reveals Democrat Strategy if Obamacare Loses

Last night on CNN, the Democratic consultant made a curious statement about what happens if the Supreme Court rules against the administration. He appears to already be ratcheting up the anti-Republican and anti-Supreme Court rhetoric in preparation, even tying a possible Obamacare defeat to the Bush-Gore election of 2000.

 

Consider Mr. Carville’s words regarding a potential defeat in the Supreme Court (after saying a defeat would be the “best thing” for Democrats because of rising health care costs):

“They overturned an election. And just as a professional Democrat, there’s nothing better for me than they overturn this thing 5-4. And then the Republican Party will own this health care system for the foreseeable future. … Go see Scalia when you want health care.”

In other words: the Supreme Court gave the country Bush, and now it’s going to take away your health care.

“This is not spin,” he reassured.

Really?

 

Obamacare: Is The Mandate Constitutional?

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They are going to lose a lot of readers when they get to constitutional law.  But then most of Washington didn’t study law, they just have a degree in it.Fro

From AMAC

from Townhall – Kate Hicks – And now, for the main event.

Today, the Court tackles the individual mandate, and whether Congress has taken a step too far by enacting it. The question is basic: Is the individual mandate constitutional? The consequences are heady. Whichever way the Court decides will have a critical effect on the scope of Congress’ power – and possibly, our freedom.

What’s At Stake?

The individual mandate – or, as the federal government will call it, the “minimum coverage provision” – has been under fire ever since the inception of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, in 2009. The political Left argues that a mandate is absolutely necessary in order to address our country’s dire healthcare situation: poor “free riders” seeking and receiving care under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act, which in turn drives up both taxes and the cost of insurance premiums. Besides, they argue, healthcare is a necessity, which everyone will need, and thus ought to have. The mandate simply prods the uninsured to do what’s best, both for themselves and in turn, the country at large. The Right, on the other hand, opposes the mandate on the grounds that it’s a total violation of freedom, that it will not succeed in reducing the overall cost of insurance, and what’s more, that down the line, it will result in socialized, government-sponsored healthcare programs rife with rationing and lines for doctors.

Of course, the Court isn’t supposed to address the political concerns attached to the healthcare issue (nevemind the speculation that it does). Instead, its main concern is determining whether Congress has overstepped its bounds, and does the Court need to check that power?

When Congress passed the PPACA, it justified the individual mandate using the Commerce Clause, which reads, “The Congress shall have Power…To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian tribes.” It’s one of the most frequently exercised powers, the cornerstone of hundreds bills passing through Congress each year. In this case, Congress has classified the decision to remain uninsured as one which “substantially affects” interstate commerce, and thus subject to regulation under the commerce clause.

The Court’s job, then, is to rule on whether abstention from the market constitutes “regulatable” behavior. If the Justices find the mandate constitutional, then it will grant Congress the power to compel an individual to participate in the market. Critics argue that such a ruling would allow Congress to exert control over an individual in an unprecedented and dangerous way, one that could degenerate into a slippery slope of increasingly tyrannical regulation. Proponents say that such fears are hyperbolic; healthcare is unique, and the mandate is necessary to stabilize healthcare, and ultimately, the economy.

Solicitor General Donald Verrilli will represent the Obama administration, arguing for constitutionality. Paul Clement will represent the states, arguing that it’s not, while Michael Carvin will represent the National Federation of Independent Business, augmenting the unconstitutionality argument.

Affirmative: The Mandate Is Constitutional

The Solicitor General will argue that the interstate commerce clause grants Congress the power to compel health insurance purchases, owing to the immediate effect that remaining uninsured has on the economy. Under this logic, there is no distinction between commercial “activity” and “inactivity.” The choice to be inactive has consequences far beyond simply not owning health insurance.

Giving legs to this argument is the claim that “free riders” in the healthcare system – such as the uninsured who seek emergency medical treatment under EMTALA – shift $43 billion per year to the rest of the country. The uninsured, the government contends, generate higher taxes to cover the cost of their care, and in turn, drive up individual family insurance premiums. The supposed “inactivity” of owning health insurance, therefore, is a decision that affects the nation at large, and causes the federal government enough of a financial burden that it has the right to regulate it.

The government will apply precedent set in Wickard v. Filburn, a case decided in the New Deal era that significantly broadened the government’s powers under the commerce clause. Roscoe Filburn was a wheat farmer, whose farm exceeded a production quota set by the government during the Great Depression. He contended that the extra wheat was intended for his own private consumption, and not for commercial purposes; therefore, the government had no right to regulate it. However, the Court held that his own private wheat stash precluded his own participation in the commercial market, thereby “substantially affecting” interstate commerce. He was in violation of the law, and Congress was well within its Commerce Clause rights to regulate his private wheat consumption.

Using this logic, the private decisions one citizen makes can have enough of an impact on the economy at large that Congress may regulate those decisions. The government will argue that healthcare is one such case in which an individual’s decision has a substantial and indeed, detrimental effect on the economy. Congress, then, has the right to regulate that decision.

While the Commerce Clause is the primary justification for the mandate, the government will also rely on the Necessary and Proper clause, which says that Congress may “make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers…” This argument will rely on the theory that the Constitution must adjust to the times. Back in the Framers’ day, healthcare meant apothecaries, bloodletting, and wooden teeth; these days, it comprises 20% of our national economy. The Necessary and Proper clause is vague and broad intentionally so as to allow Congress to address problems in the national interest as they arise. The mandate is a “necessary and proper” solution to one such national problem, they say. It ought to stand.

Negative: The Mandate Is Not Constitutional

Not so fast, the states and private parties will say. Congress can’t just seize this broad, unlimited power for the sake of “the national interest,” while assuring us all that healthcare is “special.” Who’s to say something else won’t be special someday? No, there must be a limit to Congress’ power, and the buck stops here.

Randy Barnett, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center and occasional advocate in the Supreme Court, laid out a concise case against the mandate during a talk at the Cato Institute last week. He gave four reasons for the mandate’s unconstitutionality, the model off which Mr. Clement and Mr. Carvin will work.

1) Unprecedented: Congress has never tried to claim this power before, the power to force individuals into business contracts. Nowhere does any document grant Congress the power to do so, and while that doesn’t automatically make it unconstitutional, Justice Scalia has written a most prescient opinion on this matter. He says, “If for 200 years a power this attractive has gone unused by Congress, that’s a pretty good argument that the power does not exist.” One such argument is this: instead of pumping millions of tax dollars into GM, why didn’t the government instead force us all to save the auto industry by purchasing cars or stock in the company? How different, then, is the mandate?

2) Uncabined: This is law-speak for unlimited. Interestingly, the government hasn’t been able to name a single limiting principle to this power when it’s been put on the spot. Who’s to say they can’t force us to buy other things? If Congress decides it’s in the national economic and environmental interest for all of us to drive Chevy Volts, can it issue a mandate to that end? The defense against this point is, of course, that healthcare is “different,” since everyone in his or her lifetime will require some such service. But the fact that healthcare is an apparent exception to the rule doesn’t mean the mandate power has a constitutional limit. The Court may not consider a factual inquiry such as this, but it’s worth noting that the power has no visible constitutional check.

Indeed, this particular quote from the state’s brief illustrates the problem with the “aggregated” or “substantially effects” theory the federal government relies on: “The federal government argues that the decision NOT to purchase health insurance has, in the aggregate, a substantial effect on the national economy, and therefore interstate commerce. However, the Court of Appeals struck down this premise: ‘The court found that theory ‘limitless,’ observing that, ‘[g]iven the economic reality of our national marketplace, any person’s decision not to purchase a good would, when aggregated, substantially affect the interstate commerce.’

3) Unnecessary: Congress didn’t seek every recourse besides a mandate to solve the national healthcare crisis; for example they could have raised taxes for the purpose of putting the funds toward the supposed $43 billion spent on indigent healthcare. Raising taxes, however, is politically unpopular (and for the record, it’s speculated that’s why Congress didn’t call the mandate penalty a “tax”). This argument basically says that Congress should try other means of solving the problem without exercising constitutionally questionable power.

4) Dangerous: This is an extension of the unlimited argument. Basically, choosing to enact a mandate, enforced by a penalty, could quickly spin out of control. When Congress incentivizes behavior (the primary example being Cash for Clunkers), the only consequence is foregoing a benefit, financial or otherwise. When Congress says, “Do this or else,” and means it punitively, the “or else” could eventually become a more serious consequence, such as prison. If, down the line, Congress finds that the financial penalty isn’t sufficient to induce a certain behavior (i.e. purchasing health insurance), who’s to say they won’t start jailing violators?

How Will They Rule?

This is the question of the hour. And it really is hard to say – there are precedents attached to several judges that seem to indicate they may rule either way. The most likely scenario is that the decision will be 5-4, with Justice Kennedy, as he often is, serving as the swing vote. Ultimately, the Justices will have to weigh compelling national interest against the potential for abuse of power. Tomorrow, we’ll see which points they push the most, and try to determine what factors will influence their final decision.

What To Expect in the Supreme Court on the Obamacare Issue

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I said I’d show this from many sides.  This one comes from Big Government.  It’s really multiple issues, but the individual mandate is the biggie.

This week, the Supreme Court will hear a case likely to shape our destiny as a nation when it considers whether parts of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—called the ACA in legal circles and Obamacare to the rest of the country—are unconstitutional.

The case, National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius, showcases an unprecedented coalition. Twenty-six states are suing the federal government over the constitutionality of a federal law, the first time a majority of the states of the Union have joined together to take the national government to court. These states are joined by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), as well as several NFIB members who are self-insured business owners who object to purchasing insurance that they do not need.

The justices will consider four issues in this historic case.The first is an esoteric debate on whether the Anti-Injunction Act (AIA) does not allow federal courts to decide the constitutionality of Obamacare’s individual mandate until 2015. The AIA does not apply to Obamacare, for several complex and arcane reasons that will make your eyes glaze over if you’re not a lawyer. But the Court wisely ordered the issue explored, thereby foreclosing any jurisdictional doubts that could cast a cloud of illegitimacy on what will be an extraordinarily consequential ruling.

The second issue is the one everyone has heard about: Whether Section 1501 of the ACA—the individual mandate that requires every American to buy and maintain health insurance—exceeds Congress’s authority. The Obama administration claims Section 1501 is authorized by the Commerce Clause, the Taxing Clause, and the Necessary and Proper Clause of the Constitution. This issue could go either way, as at least three of the nine justices will likely vote to strike down the mandate, and probably four will vote to uphold it. Plausible arguments can be made for which way the remaining two justices will go, and Justice Anthony Kennedy is expected to be the swing vote on the issue.

The third issue is whether the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid is unconstitutional. That issue alone makes this a major case, though most people haven’t heard of it because it’s been overshadowed in the media by the individual mandate. The question is whether the ACA’s massive expansion of Medicaid violates the 10th Amendment. Under the Spending Clause of the Constitution, Congress can attach conditions to states receiving federal funds. But the Court has always declared there’s a point at which financial inducements to persuade states crosses the line into coercing the states. Such coercion violates the 10th Amendment because the states are sovereign, co-equal in stature to the federal government, not subordinate agents or subdivisions. The Medicaid expansion imposes a crushing $50 billion cost on the states over a decade. If the Court doesn’t find that coercive of the states, then they’ll never find coercion in any future case. There might only be one or two votes to strike down the Medicaid expansion as coercive, but there is a slim chance the Court could get to five votes there as well.

The final issue is whether the individual mandate can be severed from the rest of the ACA. If Section 1501 cannot be severed, then all 450 sections of the 2,700-page Obamacare statute will be struck down, eradicating President Obama’s entire signature law.

Three teams of legal ninja masters are arguing these cases. Obama is being represented by Solicitor General Donald Verrilli. The 26 states are being represented by former Bush Solicitor General Paul Clement, a partner at Bancroft. And NFIB is being represented by Jones Day partners Mike Carvin, Greg Katsas, and Kevin Marshall—all Supreme Court heavyweights. Graduates of the nation’s best law schools, most all of these lawyers clerked for a justice on the Supreme Court, and have gone on as partners of top law firms where they’ve built reputations as the finest appellate lawyers in America.

So those are the issues, the players, and the stakes, as Obamacare goes to the Supreme Court in the case of the century.

 

 

 

Neurological Self Test (If You Fear Alzheimers)

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1- Find the C below.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

2- If you already found the C, now find the 6 below.

99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
69999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

3 – Now find the N below. It’s a little more difficult.

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMNMM
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

This is NOT a joke. If you were able to pass these 3 tests, you can cancel your annual visit to your neurologist. Your brain is great and you’re far from having a close relationship with Alzheimer.

Was IBM’s Watson a Breakthrough or Very Cheap and Creative Advertising?

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Update: Watson is in the next publicity stunt with Wall Street as sales seem to be lagging.

As we all know, Watson appeared and won on Jeopardy last year.  It was the culmination of years of work and manpower to build a machine that could react faster and be programmed to win a game show.  It was brilliant, but more for promotion than technology (as evidenced so far).  There is little doubt that the promotional value was priceless to the IT industry and an easy calculation by IBM to one up the competition.

The two humans were limited to their capacity, whereas Watson was a massive computer with incredible storage and processing capability.  It was programmed specifically for the game, so while not a slam dunk, inevitability wasn’t in much doubt.

I don’t know about you, but as I get older, I forget things and computers don’t.  You can add memory, processors and build it big enough to recall more than any amount of humans.  Jeopardy had two champions,  so it wasn’t really a fair fight.  You ultimately can overpower any certain situation with billions in technology (which is what it cost to win), but throw something like emotion or nuance into a situation and computers are lost.

It was the perfect set up.  Everyone loves to root for the underdog even though the humans really fit that role.  It was accomplished by putting the biggest two winners ever on Jeopardy up against poor Watson.  The truth was that it never was going to be close given the confines of the rules of the game.  In real life, with unforeseen issues, the humans would have a fair chance.  That was never the point of Watson though.

IBM got to promote a research facility, executives, technology and almost a free ticket for three days.  Jeopardy also was a winner with dominant ratings.

I don’t want to debate the possibilities of Watson’s future contribution to technology other than stating that it is another step (and possibly direction)  in data analytics, and it increases the perception of IBM’s lead in this area (thanks to a lot of M&A and some folks that worked without getting enough credit).  It hasn’t been the breakthrough that companies have jumped on like an iPhone, yet billions of dollars have been spent on the same hardware used to build Watson since Jeopardy for traditional IT.  Time will tell.

ADVERTISING

For now, the real victory was exposure.  How much would it cost to purchase 1.5 hours of prime time advertising for a 3 day period where you basically get to change the rules of advertising to where you don’t even have to pretend that an ad agency was involved (also saving millions).  Here is the breakdown of advertising to program, but in reality the big IBM Watson Avatar is a commercial by itself every time Alex said the word Watson.

From a Mad Men point of view (advertising show for those who don’t know) this was a stroke of creative genius that began with winning a chess match against Gary Kasparov, then moving to prime time TV when new exposure was needed.  I saw people glued to their seats and talking about it the next day at a conference.  Nevertheless, it still has all the appearances of a publicity stunt. Unfortunately, it saddled IBM with a 2015earnings projection claim that Palmisano left Gini Rometty to figure out.  With this economy, it has Sham’s chance of beating Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes to make it.

There will be claims that further technology is Watson legacy and success, but it is not what was intended by the efforts which related to making sure it beat the humans on Jeopardy.  That is supposed to come later.

CURING THE COMMON COLD

It has been suggested that Watson technolgy is being used to cure cancer.  I like others wish for this as I lost my mother to that disease.  Along with AIDS and the common cold, I have my doubts that we’ll really see this in our lifetime.  By then, trillions will be spent.  Like Global Warming, we could do more by helping to feed the starving and providing help and aid to millions.  This is not what Watson is about though last spring, it was the advertising win of 2010.

So the jury is out on whether it will succeed in medical or some other breakthrough.  For now, it was the promotional prime time win last year.

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